Mentor: Joshua K Roundy

Analysis of Seasonal Weather Forecasts for Locations at 40º North Latitude - Predicting extreme seasonal weather events such as drought and flood can have a significant impact on human life.There are many models that offer seasonal prediction, and this work will explore the utilization of various General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NNME) as well as statistical and hybrid (GCM and statistical model combination) models. GCMs use the Navier-Stokes equations to simulate the circulation of heat and energy in the earth’s atmosphere to predict seasonal weather patterns. The skill (accuracy) of these models varies based on location, season, and lead time of the prediction, and therefore, limits their use. Int his project, the goal is to identify and compare the most accurate model or combination of models for locations at a similar latitude (40º North).


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